What are the chances?

Posted on Nov 12, 2017

A basic rule of statistics:

The probability for both A and B to happen at the same time is:

P(A and B): P(A) * P(B)

Now imagine a project having 5 different moving parts, and we are able to get each part working 90% of the times. The probability of getting all parts to work together at the same time is:

P(working project): 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9: 0.59049

That’s a mere 59% chance.